Before anything, I must say sorry to my readers for a discontinuity in “ the week ahead” series. Due to some personal compulsion I failed to come out with the last week’s post. Despite my ever-increasing professional preoccupations, I would love to blog regularly.
Anybody, familiar to my viewpoint in February and March, would have recognized that I was expecting a bear phase at least for medium term, potentially for rest of this year. I even several times, indicated possible factors behind such potential bear run – technically and fundamentally.
But market is no easy game. Here, the most unexpected often becomes inevitable. And people see themselves in wrong foot. I must confess my bearish explanation didn’t performed well in reality. After several weeks’ of submissive move last week market shrugged off its weakness and once again enjoyed some power boosters.
Results are pouring in. Companies are not delivering bad numbers either. Some big-ticket companies have performed in line with the street expectation. Overall outlook is not plagued.
Inflation and interest rate are still not out of critical zone. But companies are seems like practicing to stand with these pressures. FCCBs and other external borrowings are providing some easy way outs for fund requirements. Inflation is still ruling above 6% level but recent monsoon forecast is in-line and satisfactorily steady. So, inflation expectation is not looking annoying even.
To sum it all, we are now out of danger (a tough call for me). And I feel I should grant leave to my bear-thoughts. But I am not steadily bullish either as I was in last few years. Level of participation has decreased in the market. People are not much confident. And after three consecutive crashes in a single financial year, investors are not feeling the mood to splurge easily in the market. So, no robust rally I am expecting in near future. Market will remain steady and will test our patience. Possibly, some ranged and flat moves ahead.
